What do the analytics say about the Bears’ loss to Washington?
Every week in the NFL is unique, and Sunday’s loss to the Washington Commanders was certainly one-of-a-kind for the Bears. Jayden Daniels’ 52-yard Hail Mary touchdown handed the Bears a dramatic loss in Washington.
Even though the Commanders hadn’t found the end zone until the final play of the game, the analytics seem to indicate Daniels played much better than the score suggested. On the flip side, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams struggled throughout much of the game.
Here’s what the stats, numbers and figures have to say about Sunday’s dramatic game between the Bears and Commanders.
The Hail Mary
By now you’ve probably seen this number, but Daniels scrambled around for more than 12 seconds before releasing the game-winning toss. Since NFL Next Gen Stats began tracking such things in 2016, it was the only touchdown throw in the NFL where the quarterback held onto the football for more than 10 seconds.
Daniels totaled 12.79 seconds scrambling before he released the throw. The Bears rushed only three and had linebacker TJ Edwards keeping tabs on the running back, who remained in pass protection. The total play, from snap to touchdown, took about 17 seconds.
Next Gen Stats also noted Daniels scrambled horizontally for 40.7 yards. The ball traveled 64 yards through the air before it was tipped, then traveled an additional 4 yards to receiver Noah Brown.
Per Elias Sports Bureau, it was the first time Washington won a game on the final play of regulation since at least the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
The last play aside, the Bears’ defense had a tough time against Daniels all afternoon. They sacked him just twice, despite totaling seven quarterback hits.
Next Gen Stats clocked Daniels at an average time to throw of 3.39 seconds. Obviously 12 seconds on the final play will help that average, but this is still a quarterback who threw 38 times in the game.
His 3.39 seconds rated third-most among QBs in Week 8. That was by far Daniels’ longest time to throw this season. It was his first game with an average of more than three seconds.
On the season, when Daniels has more than 2.5 seconds to throw, he has a passer rating of 108.9 (compared to 98.3 when he gets the ball out quickly). His expected points added per dropback are significantly higher when he has 2.5 seconds or longer (plus 0.34 points) vs. when he has less time (0.02).
Daniels also completed 14 of his 17 pass attempts thrown from outside the pocket. His 82.4% completion percentage from outside the pocket is the highest by a rookie QB in a game since at least 2016 and tied for the highest (with Jared Goff) in a game among all QBs this season. He racked up 226 passing yards on throws from outside the pocket.
Red zone lockdown
The Commanders failed to score a touchdown on three trips to the red zone. Two other possessions ended just outside the red zone.
It made it that much more painful how the game ended, because the defense played incredibly well when its back was against the wall. The Bears held the Commanders to four field goals before the Hail Mary.
It was the second time the Bears held an opponent out of the end zone for the first three quarters of a game (along with a Week 4 win over the Los Angeles Rams).
Following the red zone performance, the Bears currently rank as the No. 1 defense in the red zone (before Monday’s results). Teams are scoring touchdowns on just 36.8% of red zone trips. The next closest defense is Denver’s at 41.2%. In many recent seasons, there wasn’t a single team in the NFL below 40% in this metric. Even the 2018 Bears — easily the best Bears defense of the last decade — managed just 50% in the red zone.
An inaccurate performance
On the offensive side of things, this wasn’t Williams’ best game. He finished the day 10-of-24 passing for 131 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions and two sacks. He also rushed for 41 yards on 10 carries.
Williams had only three completions at halftime. He was just 1 of 5 on passes that went 20 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, per Next Gen Stats. He was 2 of 6 on passes that went between 10 and 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Next Gen Stats models estimated Williams should’ve completed 50.5% of his passes. In actuality, he completed 41.7%. His minus-8.8 difference in expected completion percentage vs. actual completion percentage was third worst in the league in Week 8, ahead of only Indianapolis QB Anthony Richardson and New Orleans rookie Spencer Rattler. For reference, Williams’ season total stands at a minus-1.1% difference.
Williams was quite aggressive, and he pushed the ball down field, but he didn’t find much success in doing so.
Tory Taylor’s busy day
Bears punter Tory Taylor had another good game. He punted seven times and downed five of them inside the 20-yard line. His five punts inside the 20 tied for the second-most by a Bears punter since 1991 when the league first started tracking the stat. That marked a new career high for Taylor.
Taylor’s mark was behind only Brad Maynard’s six punts downed inside the 20 during a 2001 loss to Green Bay at Lambeau Field.